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They didn’t depend on electricity, international trade or international finance in the same way that today’s world economy does. Early economies were very different from today’s economy. We don’t know how long such a Crisis Period might last this time.
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The timing might be right to enter the “Crisis” period, about now. We seem to have hit a period of “Stagflation,” about 1970, which is 50 years ago. The economy grew, as oil and natural gas production was added. Coal began to be used in quantity about 200 years ago, in 1820. We can think of the current economy, based on the use of fossil fuels, as likely following a similar path. Both population and production of goods and services tended to crash. There have been many examples of economies encountering a new source of energy (conquering a new land, or developing a new way of producing more energy), growing for a time, reaching a time where growth is more limited, and finally discovering that the economy that had been built up could no longer be supported by the resources available. Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov analyzed eight economies that collapsed in their book Secular Cycles. Slide 7Īnother way of approaching the problem is to analyze historical civilizations that have collapsed. Without very unrealistic assumptions, the economy always headed downward before 2100. Various other scenarios were considered, including a doubling of the resources. The base model seemed to indicate that economic decline would start about now. Regarding Slide 6, the book The Limits to Growth by Donella Meadows and others provided early computer modeling of how population growth and extraction of resources might play out. If the price of these goods rises from 25% of their income to 50% of their income, there is not enough left over for other goods and services. A doubling of unit costs for energy may not sound like much, but it is, if a person thinks about how much poor people in poor countries spend on food and other energy products. At that early date, it looked as if fossil fuels would become too expensive to extract between 20. Rickover clearly understood the important role that fossil fuels played in the economy. His talk took place only a year after Hubbert published his research. I have excerpted a few sentences from his talk. The transcript of the entire talk by Rear Admiral Hyman Rickover is worth reading. Today, nuclear energy comprises only 4% of the world’s total energy supply. He seemed to believe that nuclear energy could take over, when other energy fails. This seems to be the academic specialty that finds holes in other people’s wishful thinking.Īnother thing to note is Hubbert’s willingness to speculate about the future of nuclear energy. Nuclear and modern renewables would not be available because they depend on fossil fuels for their production, maintenance and long distance transmission lines.
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They wouldn’t provide many jobs other than those depending on manual labor, such as subsistence agriculture. Needless to say, these older renewables are only available in tiny quantities today, if they are available at all.
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Without fossil fuels, we would find it necessary to go back to using older renewables, such as oxen or horses for plowing, burned wood and other biomass for heat, and wind-powered sail boats for international transport.
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I think the real issue is the one shown on the left side of Slide 2. Most people attending my talk reported that they had mostly heard about the issue on the right end of Slide 2: the problem of using too much fossil fuel and related climate change. 9 presentation–Our Fossil Fuel Energy Predicament.
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An mp4 video of my talk can be found at this link: Gail Tverberg’s Nov.
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A PDF of my talk can be found at this link. This post is a write-up of a presentation I gave recently. I also explain why our current energy situation is starting to look more and more like an energy shortage situation that could lead to economic collapse. In this post, I explain why this situation tends to occur. We end up seeing information in the Mainstream Media mostly from the perspective of what people want to hear, rather than from the perspective of what the story really is.
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Strangely enough, a big part of the confusion regarding the nature of our energy problem comes from the fact that virtually everyone wants to hear good news, even when the news isn’t very good. There is more to the fossil fuel energy predicament than we usually hear about.